US dollar weakens, metals mostly rise, alumina leads the gains, lithium carbonate up 3%, European shipping futures hit daily limit [SMM Daily Review]

SMM May 14 News:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead declining, by 0.09%. SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE zinc all surged over 1%, with SHFE copper up 1.36%, SHFE aluminum up 1.4%, and SHFE zinc up 1.7%. The gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose 3.77%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 3%, the main silicon metal contract rose 2.72%, and the main polysilicon contract fell 0.43%. The European container shipping futures market closed at the daily limit with a 15.99% gain.

The ferrous metals series also collectively rose, with iron ore leading the gains with a 2.43% increase. Rebar, HRC, and stainless steel all rose over 1%, with rebar up 1.23%, HRC up 1.27%, and stainless steel up 1.16%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 2.11%, and coke rose 1.58%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:04, overseas base metals showed mixed performance, with LME aluminum leading the gains with a 1.04% increase and LME zinc up 0.67%. LME lead fell 0.25%, and LME tin fell 0.14%.

In precious metals, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell 0.42%, and COMEX silver fell 0.54%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.11%, and SHFE silver rose 0.16%.

Market conditions as of 15:04 today

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Macro Front

Domestic:

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Prices of 12 key production materials in the circulation sector rose in the first 10 days of May] Caijing reported on May 14 that the NBS released the price changes of key production materials in the circulation sector for the first 10 days of May 2025 today. According to monitoring of market prices of 50 key production materials across 9 categories in the national circulation sector, compared with the last 10 days of April, prices of 12 products rose, 32 fell, and 6 remained unchanged.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 14 was 7.1956 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.11%. US April CPI was lower than expected, and tariff-induced inflationary pressures have yet to emerge. This data may not change the US Fed's wait-and-see attitude. Pay attention to the performance of US PPI, retail sales, and other data to be released on Thursday.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that US April CPI rose 2.3% YoY, the lowest since February 2021 and below the market expectation of 2.4%. April CPI rose 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3% and the previous value of -0.1%. The US core CPI rose 2.8% YoY in April, in line with market expectations, remaining at its lowest level since March 2021, but still significantly above the US Fed's long-term target of 2%. The US core CPI increased 0.2% MoM in April, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.

Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist dubbed the "Fed whisperer," believes that the US Fed will have no reason to alter its wait-and-see stance due to April's CPI data. These figures largely met expectations. If it weren't for the widespread tariff hikes in April, inflation data might have prompted the US Fed to resume interest rate cuts soon. However, potential cost increases in the coming months could keep the US Fed on hold. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro Aspects:

Today, data such as the US May IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) and the final annual German April CPI rate will be released. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech on "Central Bank Research," and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on the economic outlook. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will participate in the NATO Foreign Ministers' Informal Meeting from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO's security priorities, including increasing defense investments and ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Crude Oil:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude down 0.47% and Brent crude down 0.45%. This was due to traders focusing on a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, although optimism over easing trade tensions kept oil prices near a two-week high.

Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova, stated that expectations of a substantial increase in US oil inventories have limited current optimism. She noted that this contrasts sharply with the significant increase last week, indicating that the demand side is still grappling with major challenges, leaving market observers on edge and uncertain about where the next turning point will come from.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an increase in US inventories last week, with gasoline and distillate inventories declining. US crude oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week ending May 9. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels. Previously surveyed analysts had expected, on average, a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 100,000 barrels in distillate inventories.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►May 14: Aluminum prices rose for three consecutive days, while processing fees remained under pressure [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet]

►High The center of the NPI market continues to decline, with short-term market transaction prices under pressure [Daily Review of NPI]

►Silver prices stabilize amid volatility, with downstream enterprises cautiously purchasing based on rigid demand [SMM Daily Review]